EV Public Transport System
EV Public Transport System
Business Model Description
The development of a national EV, public transport system will allow Belize to reduce its carbon footprint while also allowing for private sector investment in service provision. Battery-powered Electric Buses (BEBs) are less expensive to maintain than diesel-powered buses and do not produce any carbon emissions.
The Government would lease routes long-term and bear the bus cost, while private investors would generate added revenue inside the bus.
Expected Impact
Reduction in carbon emissions by switching transportation dependence from oil to clean energy
How is this information gathered?
Investment opportunities with potential to contribute to sustainable development are based on country-level SDG Investor Maps.
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Country & Regions
- Belize: Countrywide
Sector Classification
Transportation
Development need
here have been many government initiatives and investments made to improve infrastructure development in Belize. Belize invested approximately US $67 MN (3.9% of GDP) in infrastructure in 2015. Of which most of the investment was allocated to transportation (1.3% of GDP) and telecommunications (1.1% of GDP).
Development need
In 2017, there were more than 64,000 private vehicle passengers on Belizean roads per week which is forecasted to double by 2035. Roughly 174 vehicles per 1,000 inhabitants exist and carbon emissions are set to total more than 350,000 metric tons of carbon dioxide per year. Increased CO2 emissions have dangerous environmental trends that can have a disproportionate effect
Policy priority
Policy actions in Belize’s Sustainable Energy Roadmap aims to shift the energy matrix away from fossil fuels to alternative renewable energy technologies.These actions seek to (i) promote renewables for utility, small-scale and distributed electric generation, and (ii) promote renewables for heat transfer applications such as drying, cooling, hot water, and process heat.
Gender inequalities and marginalization issues
The International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) states that globally, renewable energy employs about 32% women, compared to 22% in the energy sector overall. Still, within renewables, women’s participation in science, technology, engineering and mathematics (STEM) jobs is far lower than in administrative jobs.
Investment opportunities introduction
In 2010, the transport sector consumed 46.80% of the total energy in the country, which 99% came from fossil fuels. The Government of Belize is looking into shifting the energy matrix away from fossil fuels to alternative renewable technologies.
Key bottlenecks introduction
Skills Barrier (limited technical expertise required introduces a major barrier to exploring Belize’s full potential in the energy sector and energy-related industries).
Land Transportation
Development need
It is projected that by 2025, there will be more than 83 thousand private vehicle passengers on the road per week in Belize, and 109 thousand by 2035. Consistent advancement in EV technology promises to continue to reduce prices and support electric vehicle sales to the general public.
Policy priority
Investing in EV infrastructure contributes to Belize's NDC targets which include avoiding 117 KtCO2e/year21 from the transport sector by 2030 through a 15% reduction in conventional transportation fuel use by 2030 and achieve 15% efficiency per passenger- and tonne-kilometre through appropriate policies and investments.
Gender inequalities and marginalization issues
The International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) states that globally, renewable energy employs about 32% women, compared to 22% in the energy sector overall. Still, within renewables, women’s participation in science, technology, engineering and mathematics (STEM) jobs is far lower than in administrative jobs.
Investment opportunities introduction
The Government of Belize is looking into shifting the energy matrix away from fossil fuels to alternative renewable technologies. Therefore, by shifting the energy matrix, the GOB has identified an opportunity to develop a policy for the introduction of investments in electric vehicles and infrastructure in the long term.
Key bottlenecks introduction
Investments in road transportation infrastructure is largely done by the Government with relatively little to no private sector participation. Electric vehicles are expensive and the development of public charging infrastructure around the country would be a costly action for Belize.
Key bottlenecks introduction
The GOB may have to consider an economic incentive that covers the incremental cost of the technology in the initial years of the program.
Road Transportation
Pipeline Opportunity
EV Public Transport System
The development of a national EV, public transport system will allow Belize to reduce its carbon footprint while also allowing for private sector investment in service provision. Battery-powered Electric Buses (BEBs) are less expensive to maintain than diesel-powered buses and do not produce any carbon emissions.
The Government would lease routes long-term and bear the bus cost, while private investors would generate added revenue inside the bus.
Business Case
Market Size and Environment
58,000 passengers weekly
It is projected that by 2025, there will be more than 58 thousand passengers on public transportation per week in Belize. Consistent advancement in EV technology promises to continue to reduce prices and support BEB adoption that will reduce public spending on transportation.
Indicative Return
10% - 15%
5% - 10%
The returns calculated are based on secondary research from BEL and a feasibility study done by the EU Global Technical Assistance Facility on Sustainable Energy which was used to develop a financial model for the EV Public Transport System.
Investment Timeframe
Medium Term (5–10 years)
Based on the estimated gain on investment, the payback period is approximately 5 years.
Ticket Size
USD 1 million - USD 10 million
Market Risks & Scale Obstacles
Market - Highly Regulated
Capital - Limited Investor Interest
Impact Case
Sustainable Development Need
In 2017, more than 42,000 public transportation on Belizean roads per week. Forecasts show that number will almost double to 76,000 per week by 2035. With a typical diesel bus emitting more than 229,000 lbs. of greenhouse gases annually, switching to a BEB fleet would help reduce carbon emissions.
Gender & Marginalisation
Global warming affects all people especially the marginalized who live under poorer conditions. Efforts to improve conditions is vital.
Expected Development Outcome
Electrifying municipal bus fleets presents a unique opportunity to reduce local pollution, improve respiratory health and reduce greenhouse gas emissions in the transport sector.
Gender & Marginalisation
Investment in this IOA can contribute to reducing global pollution that disproportionately affects women and already vulnerable communities.
Primary SDGs addressed
7.1.2 Proportion of population with primary reliance on clean fuels and technology
In 2018, 83.0 % of the population relied primarily on clean fuels and technology.
n/a
9.4.1 CO2 emission per unit of value added
0.2 kg per PPP$ of GDP in 2018
n/a
11.2.1 Proportion of population that has convenient access to public transport, by sex, age and persons with disabilities
11.6.2 Annual mean levels of fine particulate matter (e.g. PM2.5 and PM10) in cities (population weighted)
INDICATOR Satisfaction with public transport 49 % (2014)
In 2016, the annual population-weighted average mean concentration of fine suspended particles of less than 2.5 microns in diameter (PM2.5) was 20.9 micrograms per cubic metre . This is above the maximum level for safety set by WHO of 10 micrograms per cubic metre.
90% of the population has access to regular public transport service in less than 30 min from their homes by foot (Belize CTNMP)
n/a
13.2.1 Number of countries with nationally determined contributions, long-term strategies, national adaptation plans, strategies as reported in adaptation communications and national communications
13.2.2 Total greenhouse gas emissions per year
More than 140 countries have submitted new or updated nationally determined contributions (NDCs) under the Paris Agreement.
Total greenhouse gas emissions (kt of CO2 equivalent) in Belize was 1,194.71in 2017
n/a
Reduce GHG emissions and increase GHG removals related to land use change totalling 2,053 KtCO2e11 cumulative over the period from 2021 to 2030
Directly impacted stakeholders
People
Planet
Corporates
Indirectly impacted stakeholders
Corporates
Outcome Risks
The gradual transition to more locally produced renewable electricity will help minimize the risks posed by purchasing electricity from Mexico.
Impact Risks
Factors such as policy incentives, consumer characteristics, availability of charging stations, travel distance can disrupt delivery of expected impact.
Impact Classification
What
Reliable public transportation system
Who
For working class, those travel interdistrict frequently, and for commerce
Risk
External risks impacting delivery
Impact Thesis
Reduction in carbon emissions by switching transportation dependence from oil to clean energy
Enabling Environment
Policy Environment
Developing Belize's EV capacity is a national priority and outlined in Belize's Updated Nationally Determined Contribution. However, a national EV strategy does not exist as yet.
Policy actions in Belize’s Sustainable Energy Roadmap aims to shift the energy matrix away from fossil fuels to alternative renewable energy technologies.
Financial Environment
Uncertainty remains as to fiscal incentives for the importation of electric vehicles and a national strategy for the development and establishment of emissions-based taxes/feebates for imported vehicles is still in its very early stages.
Regulatory Environment
The Public Utilities Commission (PUC) is the sole regulatory agency for the electricity, water, and telecommunications sectors. EV infrastructure would have to meet national and international safety and accessibility standards.
Marketplace Participants
Private Sector
Potential IOA investors
Government
Ministry of Infrastructure Development and Housing, Ministry of Public Utilities and Logistics, Ministry of Sustainable Development, Climate Change & Disaster Risk Management, Public Utilities Commision, Belize Electricity Limited
Target Locations
Belize: Countrywide
References
- (1) Government of Belize. Belize Comprehensive National Transportation Master Plan (2018). Retrieved from https://edc.gov.bz/governmentpolicies/projects/cntmp/
- (2) Inter-American Development Bank. Transport Sector in Belize (2013). Retrieved from https://publications.iadb.org/publications/english/document/Transport-Sector-in-Belize.pdf
- (3) Battery Electric Buses State of the Practice (2018). Retrieved from https://doi.org/10.17226/25061
- (4) Battery Electric Bus and Facilities Analysis (2020). Retrieved from https://www.mjbradley.com/sites/default/files/MTSElectricBusFinalReportFINAL15jan20_0.pdf
- (5) Electrifying Transit: A Guidebook for Implementing Battery Electric Buses. Retrieved from https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1779056-electrifying-transit-guidebook-implementing-battery-electric-buses
- (6) Financial Analysis of Battery Electric Transit Buses (2020). Retrieved from https://afdc.energy.gov/files/u/publication/financial_analysis_be_transit_buses.pdf
- (7) Inter-American Development Bank: Country Infrastructure Briefs: Central America, Mexico, Panama, and Dominican Republic (2019). Retrieved from https://publications.iadb.org/en/country-infrastructure-briefs-central-america-mexico-panama-and-dominican-republic
- (8) The Future of Urban Mobility: The Case for Electric Bus Deployment in Bogotà, Colombia (Coalition for Urban Transitions). Retrieved from https://urbantransitions.global/en/publication/the-future-of-urban-mobility-the-case-for-electric-bus-deployment-in-bogota-colombia/
- (9) ProTerra (2021). Retrieved from https://www.proterra.com/vehicles/zx5-electric-bus/fuel-economy/
- (10) Zero Emission Bus Rapid-Deployment Accelerator from Pilots to Scale (Galarza) https://iea.blob.core.windows.net/assets/db408b53-276c-47d6-8b05-52e53b1208e1/e-bus-case-study-Santiago-From-pilots-to-scale-Zebra-paper.pdf